Just seconds after the stroke of midnight on December 31, in the early moments of 2023, a US-made M-142 HIMARS (highly mobile artillery rocket system), operated by the Ukrainian armed forces, fired off a pod of six Guided Multiple Rocket Launch System (GMLRS), each with a 200-pound unitary high-explosive warhead that is guided to its target using GPS, toward the 19th Vocational School in the town of Makeevka.
several approaches: refine “counter battery” surveillance and targeting, engage before scoot, second address the weapon control function which may expand the electromagnetic, and geographic battle space
last option, these are complex and need repairs and parts, effect support, similar to skewing targeting.
Point is what is the Russian equivalent of them? Apparently nothing. That's very significant indeed. Isn't it?
Only saving factor I can find is that precision strikes are all well and good but in the end they simply mean strikes that hit the target.
Even Russia without this weapon makes many strikes that hit the target.
It's not that hard to make strikes that hit the target.
Especially when you have ammunition to spare. You just fire until you do.
The problem is when the target is located close to something you do not want to hit. Like civilian stuff.
But then that 'problem' really gets shifted onto the defender: for they should realise you can't be precise and they should be careful to move their military targets away from civilians etc.
So, like it's not Russia's big problem that they can't 'hit the target' with the same precision.
They can still, notionally, hit as many targets or even more.
So Russia has an equivalent even if it doesn't, if you see what I mean.
The other angle is targets. What use is precision ammo if there are no targets to hit?
Now this has been going on for some time for both sides. Distributing their targets. No more large emplacements of anything. Everything has to be distributed and hidden.
That came about because of the eye in the sky, satellites. And is now even more needed because of drones.
So both sides are hiding and making 'low value' as many targets as they can.
What use accurate fire if there's nothing to fire at?
And it looks like one side has accurate fire that gives so many hits
and the other side has 'inaccurate' but bountiful fire that gives just as many hits.
Leave us back in the area of intelligence. Spying. Who has the best spying and the best electronic counter measure and anti-spy measures.
Both sides here are riddled with natural born spies, 5th columnists, because Kiev and Donbas Ukrainians are brothers & Russia mother and father to them all.
Nevertheless that looks like 'it' to me: the side with the most and best drones, the side with the better ECM and the side with the best spies and 'anti-spies' or spy detection will have the strong advantage.
Actually, of course, for the ordinary unmilitary citizen accurate fire means nothing. We always assumed military fire was hitting what it was supposed to hit.
And it is. Either one at a time or under a 'shotgun' barrage.
One last point: these power station infrastructure hits the Allies have been making the last couple of months. They are apparently very accurate. What are they doing them with?
'Missiles' is all I read. Don't know what kind. Don't know what they cost. Don't know how many they have. Don't know how easy it is to build them. But 'missiles'. Well they are doing the same job as HIMARS it seems to me.
So I'd expect Russia is working full on to make their own HIMARS - they already have excellent multiple launch and have had for a long time, it's just a case of figuring out this gps feature and implementing it - and meanwhile there's not really any great panic required because of this HIMARS thing looks to me.
Yep. That's the laugh. Nobody wins. The cynics say the weapons manufacturers and financiers win theirs are very limited parochial wins. Like in the USA, the principal player there along with UK, they damage their own society - they destroy their own nest, they befoul their own home.
Nobody wins from destruction and murder.
Unless you want to go all metaphysical and say we all win from the lessons we are learning.
Don't be sorry, mate. You don't appear to me to be doing any whining. The contrary. You're seeing things as they are and commenting on them: that's what we call 'proactive' and it's a good thing. More people should do it. Everyone should do it.
Nicaraguan jungle? And you are Bulgarian? How'd you end up there?
Russia has numerous equivalents that surpass the HIMARS both in range and payload, and have similar guidance/accuracy. the most immediate analogue of GMLRS is the Tornado-S MLRS, the direct equivalent of the ATACMS version would be the Iskander.
Thank you for that. I was misled by a report I read that claimed Russia had nothing similar.
I thought that was very strange considering all the accurate shots at power generating plants.
They have not got a sound based position finder I think? It seems impossible over any distance. But that's a claim I recently read. Do you know the details of that?
yes they do. the 1B75 Penicillin is a combined acoustic-thermal-seismic counterbattery system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin_(counter-artillery_system). incidentally it is now increasingly being deployed and there's some very positive feedback coming out, as it allows for very fast and accurate triangulation of enemy artillery (including HIMARS) positions and almost instant counterbattery fire.
I found it hard to believe at first - over any range at all, believable close up okay, but over kilometres?
Now I've remembered seismic technology. they've been using it for years to detect underground things at all kinds of distances haven't they?
So now I believe.
so why hasn't it been employed earlier? More evidence of problems within the russian military that I hope they're coming to grips with. :)
Thanks for the info.
p.s. there must be a very small seismic signature from Himars, seeing they are rockets not guns but I'd still think that's the way they're doing it rather than acoustics. Or maybe both.
As I understand, the problem is not about position finding, it's about the quickness of HIMARS leaving the firing location (2 min) - that's what the article reflects. GMLRS are 2,5 Machs, and Russian ground/sea based rockets (currently only subsonic or supersonic) simply don't get there soon enough.
Air strike could do the task, but then you gotta have aircrafts always hanging along the front, which is very expensive, while all the Ukranian side has to do before the launch, is to scan the skies for the absense of nearby Russian planes. Plus Russia has to have the coordination between fire detection and aircraft. I don't know if they have that capability, probably they do.
Another option is to detect non-firing HIMARS by drones, but in this case camouflage and concealment makes it an uneasy task. Nevertheless, that's probably how some HIMARS have been destroyed.
But that's the same point. The quicker you locate the position and get the fire order to the guns the quicker you can hit it.
I'm not quite sure what you mean. It sounds a bit like you might be referring to the flight time of the return fire? LIke assuming the position is detected as soon as it fires and return fire is initiated immediately - but it takes a shell or rocket longer to get there than the two minutes it takes them to move?
You know it wouldn't always be necessary to hit the things before they move. Some indication of where they are would be enough for a permanent eye in the sky to focus on that area and detect movement, even shape detect the actual thing. And then track it at leisure. Hit it when you want to hit it.
I don't know how they are used but it could be they return to a base frequently and you may want to hit the base.
It may also be that they are constantly accompanied by support vehicles that carry more ammunition - you may want simply to track the support vehicle and not let the enemy know you are onto him.
Follow it back to the main munitions dump.
A quick location can trigger an eye in the sky. It can follow for as long as it takes to direct a loitering munition or appropriate type of drone to hand off the task to. Then the eye in the sky goes about the next mission.
How were the Russians supposed to know that the Himars were already targetting Russians? The Russians also probably thought the Ukranians would honor temp cease fire? Either way I am very puzzled how Nato is bringing in so many weapons systems without detection? These are not small systems after all? If it were Tomei would have already declared war on NATO by now and started hitting any country that supplied Ukranie with any aid! This will turn out to be Russia's undoing in the end. How much longer before they realize the US has declared war on Russia...
gps for public use was less accurate than now. Bill Clinton made US gps publicly available at this accuracy. I'm thinking that maybe means it could be remotely manipulated to do all sorts of things with the accuracy...
I think all that valid talk distracts from the main problem, that Russia has terrible systemic issues in its military, and barely wants to acknowledge most of them. And its soldiers are paying the price.
Contrary to the unrelenting, ubiquitous, prevailing 'Russian Disinformation' narrative over objective reality these past years (see e.g. The Laptop), afaict, Putin/Russia just .does.not. budget, at all, for genuine American PR or IO like the U.S. does. Otoh, evidently large global tech companies like Twitter (over 70%+ social media market share) have built-in their own Lexicon for dealing/billing with U.S. gov. agencies; FBI (the 'Belly Button'), GEC ('State Dept. IO project'), OGA ('CIA'), ODNI, HS SIP-SIS etc., etc. to mold and shape public perception. see @ 'Twitter Files'
Perhaps, a mere '10% to the big guy' from Putin/Russia, and we could have avoided this whole unmitigated, Unholy War in the first place. .. in retrospect, it seems like a small price to pay?
How did Ukraine get the gps targeting data? I've read numerous reports Ukraine MoD 'triangulated' the Russian soldiers cell phone usage at the barracks. But I don't believe a word they say .. . and only half of what I see.
My relatively new-ish 'smart' phone can track flea spore over solid rock. I find it hard to believe Russian military commanders would allow soldiers to be talking on (or even 'have') cell phones within '50' miles from the western front?
On the other hand, I've also read numerous reports the U.S. directly provided Sat. targeting data for/participating in e.g. destroying the Russian flag ship and killing Russian generals among other targets. It's a wonder, maybe a small miracle, THIS war has not already spread beyond the borders of Ukraine imho.
Forget the 'Cuban missile crisis', however you may remember it. All my peeps are sleepwalking. There is no greater existential threat to world order and the future of human civilization, since the beginning of time, than the raging 'hot-war' in Ukraine. .. imo.
Sweet baby Jesus, I miss the cold war.
My top 2023 new years resolutions in order:
1. End the war in Ukraine
2. End the war in Ukraine
3. End the war in Ukraine Now
.. . a distant 4th would be to finally seat a functioning Congress and impeach those paper-hanging crazy, corrupt, self-absorbed delusionary suicidal SOBs in the White house before it's too late.
Yup. A few people struggle for global power, while what do ALL the rest of the billions have to do with it?.. and at a potential cost of a nuke armageddon, no less!
Sorry my friend but "dye has been cast"! and the "genie has been let out of the bottle"! Nothing can undo the damage done to our nation by these warmongering beaurocrats!
Thorough research is a delight to read and so in contrast with the fantasy of truth presented elsewhere . Even a logical conclusion is then possible !
Looks as if the HIMAR system has proven itself to be weapon of choice others will begin to copy.
A replay of WW2 coming up for England it can do nothing about when Germany just for fun takes retribution for Nordstream 2 and it’s stupendous financial losses as a American vassal state.
I think itis too early to make such a claim. So far every US super weapon has failed to deliver on exaggerated claims of superiority? I am amazed at the amount of people convinced that Russia is a back water nation run by morons similar to US led NATO?
Thanks Scott for the enlightening historical perspective.
In Israel we are all too familiar with this issue:
In the numerous cycles of violence between Israel and Gaza, I don't think Israel was ever able to significantly diminish rocket fire on its territory, not to mention stopping it. And here we are talking about the strongest and most sophisticated military in the region against a non state actor. If I remember correctly, despite enormous efforts by Israel, Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon also lasted until cease fire took place.
Hope they find a solution to destroy these American Himars. 🙏🙏🙏
Mate you wrote 1990 occupation of "Iraq" instead of "Kuwait" which I know is a slip of the word processor after a very busy couple of days for you.
A very informative article as always.
several approaches: refine “counter battery” surveillance and targeting, engage before scoot, second address the weapon control function which may expand the electromagnetic, and geographic battle space
last option, these are complex and need repairs and parts, effect support, similar to skewing targeting.
Shoot, Move, Communicate
Essence of artillery warfare.
Point is what is the Russian equivalent of them? Apparently nothing. That's very significant indeed. Isn't it?
Only saving factor I can find is that precision strikes are all well and good but in the end they simply mean strikes that hit the target.
Even Russia without this weapon makes many strikes that hit the target.
It's not that hard to make strikes that hit the target.
Especially when you have ammunition to spare. You just fire until you do.
The problem is when the target is located close to something you do not want to hit. Like civilian stuff.
But then that 'problem' really gets shifted onto the defender: for they should realise you can't be precise and they should be careful to move their military targets away from civilians etc.
So, like it's not Russia's big problem that they can't 'hit the target' with the same precision.
They can still, notionally, hit as many targets or even more.
So Russia has an equivalent even if it doesn't, if you see what I mean.
The other angle is targets. What use is precision ammo if there are no targets to hit?
Now this has been going on for some time for both sides. Distributing their targets. No more large emplacements of anything. Everything has to be distributed and hidden.
That came about because of the eye in the sky, satellites. And is now even more needed because of drones.
So both sides are hiding and making 'low value' as many targets as they can.
What use accurate fire if there's nothing to fire at?
And it looks like one side has accurate fire that gives so many hits
and the other side has 'inaccurate' but bountiful fire that gives just as many hits.
Leave us back in the area of intelligence. Spying. Who has the best spying and the best electronic counter measure and anti-spy measures.
Both sides here are riddled with natural born spies, 5th columnists, because Kiev and Donbas Ukrainians are brothers & Russia mother and father to them all.
Nevertheless that looks like 'it' to me: the side with the most and best drones, the side with the better ECM and the side with the best spies and 'anti-spies' or spy detection will have the strong advantage.
Actually, of course, for the ordinary unmilitary citizen accurate fire means nothing. We always assumed military fire was hitting what it was supposed to hit.
And it is. Either one at a time or under a 'shotgun' barrage.
One last point: these power station infrastructure hits the Allies have been making the last couple of months. They are apparently very accurate. What are they doing them with?
'Missiles' is all I read. Don't know what kind. Don't know what they cost. Don't know how many they have. Don't know how easy it is to build them. But 'missiles'. Well they are doing the same job as HIMARS it seems to me.
So I'd expect Russia is working full on to make their own HIMARS - they already have excellent multiple launch and have had for a long time, it's just a case of figuring out this gps feature and implementing it - and meanwhile there's not really any great panic required because of this HIMARS thing looks to me.
Russians have nothing equivalent:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/26/the-russians-have-nothing-equivalent-how-himars-help-ukraine
The Russian equivalent:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-missiles-hit-key-infrastructure-in-wave-of-attacks-across-ukraine
Yep. That's the laugh. Nobody wins. The cynics say the weapons manufacturers and financiers win theirs are very limited parochial wins. Like in the USA, the principal player there along with UK, they damage their own society - they destroy their own nest, they befoul their own home.
Nobody wins from destruction and murder.
Unless you want to go all metaphysical and say we all win from the lessons we are learning.
:)
Don't be sorry, mate. You don't appear to me to be doing any whining. The contrary. You're seeing things as they are and commenting on them: that's what we call 'proactive' and it's a good thing. More people should do it. Everyone should do it.
Nicaraguan jungle? And you are Bulgarian? How'd you end up there?
Russia has numerous equivalents that surpass the HIMARS both in range and payload, and have similar guidance/accuracy. the most immediate analogue of GMLRS is the Tornado-S MLRS, the direct equivalent of the ATACMS version would be the Iskander.
Thank you for that. I was misled by a report I read that claimed Russia had nothing similar.
I thought that was very strange considering all the accurate shots at power generating plants.
They have not got a sound based position finder I think? It seems impossible over any distance. But that's a claim I recently read. Do you know the details of that?
yes they do. the 1B75 Penicillin is a combined acoustic-thermal-seismic counterbattery system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin_(counter-artillery_system). incidentally it is now increasingly being deployed and there's some very positive feedback coming out, as it allows for very fast and accurate triangulation of enemy artillery (including HIMARS) positions and almost instant counterbattery fire.
I found it hard to believe at first - over any range at all, believable close up okay, but over kilometres?
Now I've remembered seismic technology. they've been using it for years to detect underground things at all kinds of distances haven't they?
So now I believe.
so why hasn't it been employed earlier? More evidence of problems within the russian military that I hope they're coming to grips with. :)
Thanks for the info.
p.s. there must be a very small seismic signature from Himars, seeing they are rockets not guns but I'd still think that's the way they're doing it rather than acoustics. Or maybe both.
As I understand, the problem is not about position finding, it's about the quickness of HIMARS leaving the firing location (2 min) - that's what the article reflects. GMLRS are 2,5 Machs, and Russian ground/sea based rockets (currently only subsonic or supersonic) simply don't get there soon enough.
Air strike could do the task, but then you gotta have aircrafts always hanging along the front, which is very expensive, while all the Ukranian side has to do before the launch, is to scan the skies for the absense of nearby Russian planes. Plus Russia has to have the coordination between fire detection and aircraft. I don't know if they have that capability, probably they do.
Another option is to detect non-firing HIMARS by drones, but in this case camouflage and concealment makes it an uneasy task. Nevertheless, that's probably how some HIMARS have been destroyed.
But that's the same point. The quicker you locate the position and get the fire order to the guns the quicker you can hit it.
I'm not quite sure what you mean. It sounds a bit like you might be referring to the flight time of the return fire? LIke assuming the position is detected as soon as it fires and return fire is initiated immediately - but it takes a shell or rocket longer to get there than the two minutes it takes them to move?
You know it wouldn't always be necessary to hit the things before they move. Some indication of where they are would be enough for a permanent eye in the sky to focus on that area and detect movement, even shape detect the actual thing. And then track it at leisure. Hit it when you want to hit it.
I don't know how they are used but it could be they return to a base frequently and you may want to hit the base.
It may also be that they are constantly accompanied by support vehicles that carry more ammunition - you may want simply to track the support vehicle and not let the enemy know you are onto him.
Follow it back to the main munitions dump.
A quick location can trigger an eye in the sky. It can follow for as long as it takes to direct a loitering munition or appropriate type of drone to hand off the task to. Then the eye in the sky goes about the next mission.
Billeting soldiers in the school building, within range of the HIMARS wasn't such a good idea.
How were the Russians supposed to know that the Himars were already targetting Russians? The Russians also probably thought the Ukranians would honor temp cease fire? Either way I am very puzzled how Nato is bringing in so many weapons systems without detection? These are not small systems after all? If it were Tomei would have already declared war on NATO by now and started hitting any country that supplied Ukranie with any aid! This will turn out to be Russia's undoing in the end. How much longer before they realize the US has declared war on Russia...
the nato side is too intent on body count.
reminds me of Chet Huntley reporting bc and Nvda dead.
while any meaningful measure of military effect was suppressed.
expensive targeting, shooting expensive rockets just make dead heroes…..
sad, but Russia is giving more than taking in the body count
until nato sends more than detailed spec operators, and contractors to make up for untrained users.
GPS is said to be vulnerable.
That's a thought. Jamming via high altitude balloon or Sat.
Far less accuracy if it could be done.
gps for public use was less accurate than now. Bill Clinton made US gps publicly available at this accuracy. I'm thinking that maybe means it could be remotely manipulated to do all sorts of things with the accuracy...
Russia also have anti satellite weapons. If they are in the mood to escalate, they might fire off a few of those.
Wow - what an incredible analysis and historical update !!
I think all that valid talk distracts from the main problem, that Russia has terrible systemic issues in its military, and barely wants to acknowledge most of them. And its soldiers are paying the price.
Dutch:
Scott Ritter: Waarom de HIMARS zo moeilijk te raken is
https://www.frontnieuws.com/scott-ritter-waarom-de-himars-zo-moeilijk-te-raken-is/
V1 was not a rocket, but more like a cruise missile.
Dear Weapons Inspector Scott,
Contrary to the unrelenting, ubiquitous, prevailing 'Russian Disinformation' narrative over objective reality these past years (see e.g. The Laptop), afaict, Putin/Russia just .does.not. budget, at all, for genuine American PR or IO like the U.S. does. Otoh, evidently large global tech companies like Twitter (over 70%+ social media market share) have built-in their own Lexicon for dealing/billing with U.S. gov. agencies; FBI (the 'Belly Button'), GEC ('State Dept. IO project'), OGA ('CIA'), ODNI, HS SIP-SIS etc., etc. to mold and shape public perception. see @ 'Twitter Files'
Perhaps, a mere '10% to the big guy' from Putin/Russia, and we could have avoided this whole unmitigated, Unholy War in the first place. .. in retrospect, it seems like a small price to pay?
How did Ukraine get the gps targeting data? I've read numerous reports Ukraine MoD 'triangulated' the Russian soldiers cell phone usage at the barracks. But I don't believe a word they say .. . and only half of what I see.
My relatively new-ish 'smart' phone can track flea spore over solid rock. I find it hard to believe Russian military commanders would allow soldiers to be talking on (or even 'have') cell phones within '50' miles from the western front?
On the other hand, I've also read numerous reports the U.S. directly provided Sat. targeting data for/participating in e.g. destroying the Russian flag ship and killing Russian generals among other targets. It's a wonder, maybe a small miracle, THIS war has not already spread beyond the borders of Ukraine imho.
Forget the 'Cuban missile crisis', however you may remember it. All my peeps are sleepwalking. There is no greater existential threat to world order and the future of human civilization, since the beginning of time, than the raging 'hot-war' in Ukraine. .. imo.
Sweet baby Jesus, I miss the cold war.
My top 2023 new years resolutions in order:
1. End the war in Ukraine
2. End the war in Ukraine
3. End the war in Ukraine Now
.. . a distant 4th would be to finally seat a functioning Congress and impeach those paper-hanging crazy, corrupt, self-absorbed delusionary suicidal SOBs in the White house before it's too late.
.
.
.
5. peace on earth and goodwill towards man.
*Carry on. ..
Yup. A few people struggle for global power, while what do ALL the rest of the billions have to do with it?.. and at a potential cost of a nuke armageddon, no less!
Peace on Earth.
Sorry my friend but "dye has been cast"! and the "genie has been let out of the bottle"! Nothing can undo the damage done to our nation by these warmongering beaurocrats!
Thanks a lot !!!
FYI - a great interview with Rumble CEO on TC Today: "The Rise of Rumble"
Thorough research is a delight to read and so in contrast with the fantasy of truth presented elsewhere . Even a logical conclusion is then possible !
Looks as if the HIMAR system has proven itself to be weapon of choice others will begin to copy.
A replay of WW2 coming up for England it can do nothing about when Germany just for fun takes retribution for Nordstream 2 and it’s stupendous financial losses as a American vassal state.
Just joking.
I think itis too early to make such a claim. So far every US super weapon has failed to deliver on exaggerated claims of superiority? I am amazed at the amount of people convinced that Russia is a back water nation run by morons similar to US led NATO?
Thanks Scott for the enlightening historical perspective.
In Israel we are all too familiar with this issue:
In the numerous cycles of violence between Israel and Gaza, I don't think Israel was ever able to significantly diminish rocket fire on its territory, not to mention stopping it. And here we are talking about the strongest and most sophisticated military in the region against a non state actor. If I remember correctly, despite enormous efforts by Israel, Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon also lasted until cease fire took place.