Putin's Gambit

There has never been a more important time for arms control. And the US government has never been so ill-prepared to meet this challenge. Enter Project 38.

A US Minuteman III missile is launched from Vandenburg Air Force Base, California

Project 38 is a campaign that seeks to promote effective arms control and disarmament policy and, in doing so, avoid the dangers of a new nuclear arms race by promoting an alternative policy approach toward arms control and disarmament between the United States and Russia focused on the absolute need to keep the limitation on the sizes of the US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals imposed under the New START treaty intact. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently opened the door to such a possibility. It is Project 38’s mission to help US President Donald Trump pass through this door.

Arms control, as we currently know it, is on life support. Without major diplomatic engagement by both the United States and Russia, the concept of placing limitations of the strategic nuclear arsenals of both nations will evaporate. The last remaining strategic arms control treaty, New START, expires on February 5, 2026, and there currently are not any negotiations underway either to either extend this treaty or replace it with a new one. If New START dies, so too dies decades of hard work and precedent which saw the US and Russia move away from Cold War-era strategic nuclear arsenals that numbered in the tens of thousands of weapons for each side, to the current situation, which finds the number of deployable weapons capped at 1,550 each.

The reality today is that New START, as a functioning, verifiable arms control agreement, is moribund, its mission undermined by policies embraced by the US which are more defined by concepts such as containment, confrontation, and strategic defeat than issues of peace, de-escalation, and mutual prosperity. However, the structural limitations imposed by New START continue to serve as a force of influence when it comes to the strategic relationship between the US and Russia and, if allowed to remain in place intact even after the treaty itself expires, could greatly simplify any follow-on treaty that might be negotiated down the road.

This appears to be the premise as put forward by Russian President Vladimir Putin in comments made while addressing the Russian Security Council. “Russia,” Putin declared, “is ready to continue to observe the key limitations of New START in terms of numbers for a year following February 5, 2026. Subsequently, we will make a decision on whether to keep the voluntary self-imposed limitations, based on our assessment of the situation.”

This decision was not, Putin noted, automatic. “We believe,” Putin said, “that this measure will only be viable if the United States acts likewise, refraining from any steps that could undermine or upset the existing balance of deterrence capabilities.”

Of critical concern to Russia are the plans articulated by the administration of President Trump to deploy what is known as the “Golden Dome” missile defense system. Putin has tasked the relevant Russian agencies to monitor these plans, adding that the deployment of the kind of space-based weapons envisioned under the “Golden Dome” concept would undermine the efforts undertaken by Russia to maintain strategic stability, and by extension preclude Russia from continuing to observe the limitations that exist under the New START treaty.

When Project 38 was announced last month, the principal goals were to get the Trump administration to:

(a) engage meaningfully on extending New START as a means of sustaining strategic stability between the United States and Russia regarding nuclear weapons;

(b) to begin negotiations with Russia to craft a replacement arms control treaty with Russia that avoided a new arms race while promoting further cuts in the nuclear arsenals of both the United States and Russia; and

(c) to delay efforts to deploy the Golden Dome shield while these arms control talks are underway, with the understanding that a successful negotiation would preclude the need for the Golden Dome system.

President Putin’s comments to his Security Council underscore the absolute imperative contained in these goals and objectives. In short, Project 38 is even more relevant today than it was when announced back on August 20.

One of the complicating factors is the fact that President Putin has taken the extension of New START off the table. It seems that the primary reason behind this decision is the unwillingness to date of the Trump administration to enter negotiations with Russia on the practical steps necessary to implement such an extension.

This creates a very delicate new reality. Void of an agreed upon treaty vehicle, there are no legal constraints in place regarding either the size of the respective strategic nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia. Nor is there a binding treaty vehicle in place to buffer against the destabilizing effects of strategic initiatives outside the framework of New START, such as missile defense (i.e., “Golden Dome”.)

The Trump administration is on the cusp of making several decisions which will impact the strategic nuclear posture of the United States. These include programs designed to modernize the nuclear triad that serves as the foundation of the US strategic nuclear enterprise, and moving toward implementation of the “Golden Dome” missile defense shield. Any decisions made regarding either of these issues have the real possibility of undermining or upsetting the existing balance of deterrence capabilities, the red line established by President Putin when it came to continuing to voluntarily adhere to the limitations on the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons defined under New START.

The good news is that President Trump is aware of the dangers associated with allowing the limitations on the size of the nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia to end. Speaking to reporters on July 25 of this year, President Trump stated that “[New START is] not an agreement you want expiring. We’re starting to work on that,” adding that “It’s a problem for the world. When you take off nuclear restrictions, that’s a big problem.”

The bad news is that the Trump administration has gutted the very diplomatic institutions that are needed to negotiate a follow-on arms control treat with Russia. Under a reorganization plan announced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on July 19, the bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation has been merged with the bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance under a single assistant secretary, literally doubling the workload while operating with a significantly reduced staff.

The Trump administration’s incoming Undersecretary of International Security and Arms Control, Thomas DiNanno (who has yet to be confirmed by the Senate) will likewise have an enlarged portfolio which includes International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, Counterterrorism, and Emerging Threats. Secretary Rubio has further hamstrung his arms control team by eliminating critical positions, including the entire Multilateral Nuclear Affairs team which led the State Department’s efforts to develop and implement US policy and participation in multilateral nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements, commitments, and multilateral bodies.

One of the critical goals of Project 38 was to convene a working group whose mission was to create a team of subject matter experts capable of formulating solutions to the existing arms control problem set, including the issues surrounding the expiration of New START, and organizing a team of experts prepared to offer advise to President Trump and his senior leadership on how to proceed with keeping the restrictions currently in place regarding the respective size of the US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals in place.

This citizen engagement team would likewise be prepared to discuss the critical connectivity between sustaining the New START limitations and proposed missile defense systems, highlighting the inherently destabilizing impact any effort to move forward on the “Golden Dome” missile defense system would have on arms control in general, especially when it comes to keeping the New START limitations in place.

The need for this citizen engagement team has never been greater. The combination of the time sensitive nature of the problem and the fact that the Trump administration is not currently organized to move this important arms control problem forward toward a solution makes the need for this team manifest.

This week a team of arms control and Russian specialists will be assembling in Poughkeepsie, New York under the auspices of the Poughkeepsie Peace Initiative (PPI). Over the course of two days, the PPI will work on crafting a briefing designed to be presented to President Trump and his national security team that will propose practical solutions to the arms control problem presented in the aftermath of President Putin’s statement to the Russian Security Council.

The Poughkeepsie gathering is but the first part of a public policy campaign the goal of which is to help position the Trump administration to take advantage of the opportunity presented by President Putin’s gambit.

Failure is not an option, because the security and safety of the US, Russia and the world depends on keeping the last vestiges of arms control intact while US and Russian leaders struggle with how to sustain decades of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament polices that have prevented nuclear war between our two nations.

The goals and objectives of Project 38 and the Poughkeepsie Peace Initiative are made possible by the kind donations of like-minded people of peace. I want to express my heartfelt gratitude for those whose donations have enabled this initiative to move forward, and to encourage those who would like to help us take this project across the finish line to support us in any way possible, including simply providing the kind words of support which help motivate us all daily.