A Method to his Madness

Vladimir Putin has offered to pay the $1 billion buy in to Trump’s Board of Peace. But there’s a catch.

“Peace to the world”, a painting created by Russian artist Alexei Sergienko showing a combination of faces of Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

Many people, including myself, were taken aback when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was willing to donate $1 billion from Russian assets frozen in the US to help fund the work of Donald Trump’s new pet project, a “Board of Peace” whose mission is to ostensibly oversee the reconstruction of Gaza.

After all, Russia has been at the forefront of promoting the concept of a law-based global order founded on the principle of the United Nations Charter.

Trump’s Board of Peace represents the antithesis of that goal, literally conceived not as an alternative to the United Nations, but rather its replacement.

So why would Russia want to buy in to something that is counter to its core values?

The answer is because it gives Russia a seat at the table.

And the reality of the world today is that for the next three years the table is being set by the United States and, more specifically, Donald Trump.

And along with setting the table, Trump is in charge of creating the menu.

By buying into Trump’s Board of Peace, Russia is creating the conditions necessary that one can get a bowl of Siberian Pelmeni with your American cheeseburger and freedom fries.

But this isn’t about Gaza.

Russia and its President is thinking even more strategically. Trump’s Board of Peace is expected to be positioned to help manage the reconstruction of Ukraine once the conditions of conflict termination are agreed upon and implemented.

And President Putin has apparently embraced the concept of Russian frozen assets being used to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine.

But this underwriting of Ukraine’s economic revival won’t occur in a vacuum.

Through its ongoing campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Russia is in the process of destroying the political viability of the current crop of Ukrainian political leadership, from Zelensky on down.

This effort goes hand-in-glove with the ongoing campaign to expose corruption within the Ukrainian political establishment.

The Ukrainian people are being conditioned to accept new leadership which will come to power through new elections.

Elections which will be driven by the issue of Ukraine’s reconstruction and the return of normalcy to Ukrainian life.

Putin is positioning Russia to both fund and control Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, and with it the major levers of influence over Ukraine’s political future.

There are many in Russia, including those with close ties to the Kremlin, who believe that post-conflict Ukraine’s future will be as they”third sister” of the Union State, which currently comprises Russia and Belarus, and not with the EU.

Russia has invested significant resources into building a government in waiting inside Russia that includes the former President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, and former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, among others.

By leveraging economic levers of influence over a population desperate for change, Russia should be able to exercise control over the political future and direction of post-conflict Ukraine.

Demilitarization and denazification are two core aspects of Russia’s requirements for resolving the root causes of the conflict with Ukraine.

Trump’s Board of Peace could provide Russia a vector of control and influence it might not otherwise have if Putin eschewed paying the $1 billion buy in.

From the Russian perspective, this payment represents buy in into a post-conflict resolution process Russia might otherwise not be a part of.

If this gambit fails, then Russia lost a billion dollars of funds it no longer controls.

If it succeeds Russia will be in the driver’s seat going forward on Ukraine.

And in any event, the chances of Trump’s Board of Peace remaining viable once Trump is out of office in three years is slim to none—this is the pet project of a man who governs through a cult of personality.

Once the Trump phenomenon ends, Russia can get back to promoting the UN Charter-grounded law-based international order, this time secure in a new reality that has the war with Ukraine over and Russia in command of Ukraine’s future.